the jane market brief
June is when investors start hedging positions, locking in gains, and preparing for the northern hemisphere’s summer slowdown. July is historically one of the least volatile months of the year. There's a reason for that.
Investors are human. And in July, the people paid to watch markets all day are statistically more likely to be spotted in the south of France with a glass of rosé than staring at a screen.
So, what happened while they were still paying attention?
Here in Australia:
the vibe check wasn’t great
Let's start with something called the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index*. Fancy name. Simple idea.
Every month, they survey around 1,200 Australians and ask: how are you feeling about money right now?
In June, the answer was: not good.
The index dropped to 80.6 - one of the weakest readings in its fifty-year history. The NAB Business Confidence survey tells the same story from the other side: confidence remained firmly negative, with conditions tracking below average.
Is this a crisis? No. But it is the RBA's* very uncomfortable balancing act - raise rates enough to cool inflation without tipping the economy into something worse. Think of it like trying to turn down the heat on a simmering pot without letting it go cold. One degree matters.
A quick word on central banks -
because we say that phrase a lot
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the bank of banks. It doesn't have a branch on your high street. Instead, it sets the interest rate that banks charge each other - and that ripples out to your mortgage, your savings account, and the cost of running a business.
The RBA has two jobs: keep inflation under control and keep as many Australians employed as possible. Right now, those two goals are pulling in slightly different directions - which is exactly why every decision feels like a tightrope walk.
In June, the RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35%, pausing after three consecutive hikes while it assesses how the previous increases are flowing through the economy. Not a victory lap. Just a breath.
The number that stopped us:
4DMedical (ASX*: 4DX)
4DMedical Ltd is a Melbourne-based medical technology company. Its software converts routine chest CT scans into detailed lung function maps, helping doctors diagnose respiratory conditions faster, more accurately, and without the radiation exposure of older methods.
The stock moved 37% in the past month. Over the past year, it's moved by roughly 1,900%.
1,900% in twelve months is not a typo. It's also exactly the kind of number that comes from being a small company whose value rests on a handful of catalysts, clinical trial progress, institutional investment, regulatory approvals, still playing out. The same forces that can send a stock like this up 1,900% can send it down just as fast. That's not a knock on 4DX; it's just what "hidden inside a slow index, big stories can emerge" actually means in practice.
We're not sharing this because we think you should buy 4DX, sell it, or do anything else with it. Companies mentioned are examples of what's moving in the market, not recommendations. If a story like this catches your interest, that's a good reason to look closer or talk to a licensed financial adviser about whether it fits your circumstances, not a cue to act on a number in a newsletter.
Around the world:
the big June plot twists
The US and Iran: a deal - sort of
On June 17, the US and Iran reached an initial agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Good news for oil markets and global shipping.
But - and it's a significant but - missiles were still being fired even as negotiators were signing.
Why is Trump pushing so hard for a deal right now? The US midterm elections are in November. Coincidence? Possibly.
The UK: another prime minister out
Britain is having a moment. And not a great one.
Keir Starmer resigned on June 22, the latest in a succession of leaders undone by a stubbornly weak economy and cost-of-living pressures that have worn down the British public.
The numbers tell the story: 12 prime ministers over 65 years - and now 7 in the last 10. UK gilt* yields spiked as investors priced in the political uncertainty. When markets worry about who's in charge of the budget, borrowing costs rise. And when borrowing costs rise, everyone pays.
What does all of this mean for you?
June was a month of things slowly - cautiously - beginning to ease. A deal in the Middle East. Rates on hold. The worst of the energy shock may be starting to pass.
But the effects - higher prices, tighter rates, cautious consumers - take time to work through the system. There are no overnight fixes here.
Your job isn't to predict how it plays out.
It's to stay invested according to your plan, stay diversified, and not let the headlines alone make the decisions for you.
Why read us?
Most financial news isn't written for women. It assumes you already know the language, the players, and the rules of a game you were never invited to play.
Jane exists to change that. Every month, we translate what's moving in markets into something clear, relevant, and genuinely useful so that when money comes up at the dinner table, in a boardroom, or in your own head at 11pm, you feel like you belong in that conversation.
Because you do.
Missed a previous issue? Every market update and financial confidence piece lives in the Jane archive, a growing library built for women who want to understand money on their own terms.
And if there's something you'd like us to cover next month - a term that keeps coming up, a market story you want us to break down - reply and tell us. We read every response.
Until next month,
Julia Scott
CEO, Money by Jane
Glossary
ASX: Australian Securities Exchange - home to Australia's listed companies and funds
4DX: The ASX ticker symbol used to buy or sell shares in 4DMedical
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Australia's central bank. The RBA sets official interest rates and plays a key role in managing inflation and keeping the economy stable.
UK Gilts: Fixed-interest bonds issued by the UK government to finance public spending
Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index: Measures the confidence levels of Australian consumers regarding the economy and their personal finances.
Information provided by Money by Jane is general in nature and does not take into consideration your personal financial situation. It is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice nor financial product advice in any way. Remember, the value of any investment can go down as well as up. Before acting, you should consider seeking independent personal financial advice that is tailored to your needs from an appropriately licensed or authorised financial adviser. 