the jane market brief
Last month we started this market brief thinking July would be a quiet month. Turns out, no such luck. This edition is a bit of a stew: geopolitics, AI*, oil, investors, earnings, all mixed together. Trust me, the result is impossible to predict. As always.
Here's the menu.
Starter: Australia
The economic picture stayed complicated.
NAB reported a 15% drop in home loan applications over the June quarter, and Westpac flagged a similar collapse in new mortgages, blaming a combination of tax changes and consecutive rate hikes. When two of the big four banks say the same thing in the same week, it's worth paying attention.
What does this actually mean? Fewer people are buying homes. Either they can't afford to borrow, or they've decided now isn't the right moment. Both are signals that higher rates are doing exactly what the RBA* intended, slowing things down.
The question is whether they slow things down a little, or a lot.
For now, the RBA appears to be watching and waiting. With the Middle East situation still unresolved and household confidence still fragile, another rate hike feels unlikely in the near term. The next decision is in August and most economists expect a hold.
Main course: United States
There's a lot we could cover here: geopolitical tensions, SK Hynix* listings in the US, the new Fed* chair, trouble in the bond market, crowded investor positioning, AI investing in AI. Plenty of interesting angles, but only so many lines to work with.
I promise we will explain in the future.
Now.
SpaceX.
The largest IPO* in history launched on 12 June, priced at US$135 per share, raising approximately US$75 billion. Day one: opened at US$150, closed at US$161, a 19% gain. The market cap hit $2.1 trillion. Everyone was talking about it.
And then.
By July, SPCX* was trading around US$107, having lost nearly half its value from its June highs, and fallen below its original IPO price of US$135.
Is SpaceX a bad company? No. Is it a bad long-term bet? Maybe not. But here's what this story illustrates perfectly:
When everyone is talking about one stock that's going to change the world, that's usually the moment to pause, not rush.
The loudest moment at the party is rarely the best time to arrive.
Something sweet to finish: Viva Energy (ASX: VEA)
Amid all the noise, one Australian company quietly had a remarkable July.
Viva Energy runs the Geelong oil refinery in Victoria and operates Shell-branded service stations across the country.
Viva Energy was the best performer on the ASX 200 in July, surging 38%, after reporting first-half earnings more than double those of the prior year.
Why? The same geopolitical disruption that has been making headlines all year, the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure, created a shortage of regional refining capacity. Viva's Geelong refinery found itself in exactly the right place at exactly the right time, with refining margins running well above prior-year levels.
It's a reminder worth holding onto: extraordinary returns don't only come from AI announcements or rocket launches. Sometimes they come from a refinery in Victoria, quietly doing what it's always done, in an environment that suddenly makes it very, very valuable.
Not just AI. Business. Context. Timing.
What does all of this mean for you?
July was supposed to be quiet. Instead, it gave us enough news to fill three market briefs.
Markets are unpredictable. That's not a warning, it's just the truth.
What stays constant is the principle: patient, diversified, long-term investing beats chasing the loudest story in the room. SpaceX reminded us of that this month in real time.
Stay curious. Stay patient.
We're here with you,
Julia Scott
CEO and Founder of Money by Jane
Chartered Accountant with 20+ years helping women build financial confidence
Glossary
RBA: Short for the Reserve Bank of Australia. It's our central bank - the one that sets interest rates and decides whether borrowing gets more or less expensive for everyday Australians.
SK Hynix: A South Korean company that makes the memory chips powering AI data centres. It's become a bellwether for how hot (or overheated) the AI investing story really is.
Fed: Short for the US Federal Reserve. It's America's version of the RBA - the central bank that sets US interest rates and moves that ripple through markets everywhere, including here.
IPO: Short for Initial Public Offering. It's the moment a private company sells shares to the public for the first time and starts trading on a stock exchange. Think of it as a company's opening night.
AI: Short for Artificial Intelligence. In market terms, it's shorthand for the technology boom investors have been pouring money into over the past few years - sometimes for good reason, sometimes just because everyone else is.
SPCX: The stock market code (ticker) for SpaceX shares, used to identify it on the exchange once it started trading publicly.
Information provided by Money by Jane is general in nature and does not take into consideration your personal financial situation. It is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice nor financial product advice in any way. Remember, the value of any investment can go down as well as up. Before acting, you should consider seeking independent personal financial advice that is tailored to your needs from an appropriately licensed or authorised financial adviser. 
